{ "version": "v0-diagnostic-1", "dataset": "engine/data/romania-current.csv", "protocol": { "warmup_matches": 300, "train_seasons": [ "2012/2013", "2013/2014", "2014/2015", "2015/2016", "2016/2017", "2017/2018", "2018/2019", "2019/2020" ], "validation_seasons": [ "2020/2021", "2021/2022", "2022/2023" ], "test_seasons": [ "2023/2024", "2024/2025", "2025/2026" ], "forward_partial_seasons": [ "2026/2027" ], "parameter_policy": "Parametrii existenți ai v0 sunt înghețați. Nu se aleg filtre sau ponderi pe test." }, "dataset_audit": { "completed_rows": 4229, "parsed_matches": 4229, "result_vs_goals_mismatches": 0, "duplicate_kickoff_home_away": 0, "chronological_order": true, "complete_closing_triplets_by_source": { "AvgC": 4229, "MaxC": 4229, "PSC": 3950, "B365C": 329 }, "provider_triplet_source_used": { "AvgC": 4221, "missing": 8 }, "invalid_avg_closing_odds_value_rows": 0, "invalid_avg_closing_market_triplets": 4, "material_avgc_vs_b365_anomalies_excluded": 8, "avg_closing_overround_mean": 0.08354940974891686, "avg_closing_overround_min": -0.4053975518506412, "avg_closing_overround_max": 0.1079328756674296, "odds_mapping": { "AvgCH": "home", "AvgCD": "draw", "AvgCA": "away" }, "settlement_mapping": { "HG > AG": "home", "HG = AG": "draw", "HG < AG": "away" }, "odds_timing": "closing", "timing_limitation": "Fișierul identifică aceste coloane drept closing odds, dar nu conține captured_at. Benchmark valid la închidere; nu dovedește prețul disponibil mai devreme.", "missing_odds_policy": "Meciurile fără triplet complet sau cu anomalie materială AvgC vs B365 rămân în metricile predictive, dar sunt excluse din benchmark și ROI. Nu se combină coloane H/D/A din surse diferite." }, "leakage_audit": { "prediction_before_update_checks": 3929, "evaluated_predictions": 3929, "all_predictions_made_before_current_match_update": true, "feature_scope": "Doar rezultate anterioare; cotele nu intră în Elo, Dixon-Coles, formă sau ensemble. Ele intră numai în benchmark/edge după predicție.", "same_day_ordering": "Data și ora sunt parse-uite; sortarea este cronologică. Egalitățile de timestamp sunt păstrate în ordinea sursei." }, "splits": { "train": { "matches": 1963, "actual_outcome_distribution": { "draw": 543, "away": 581, "home": 839 }, "models": { "elo": { "matches": 1963, "brier": 0.620725365083119, "log_loss": 1.035391639188022, "accuracy": 0.49108507386653083, "calibration": { "ece": 0.02116429784069047, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 4, "mean_predicted": 0.09224180650931897, "observed": 0.5, "gap": 0.40775819349068104 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 448, "mean_predicted": 0.17756876288253912, "observed": 0.16071428571428573, "gap": -0.01685447716825339 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 2588, "mean_predicted": 0.24882045436950168, "observed": 0.25734157650695516, "gap": 0.008521122137453485 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 1286, "mean_predicted": 0.347084024512968, "observed": 0.3141524105754277, "gap": -0.032931613937540294 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 830, "mean_predicted": 0.44796813778400857, "observed": 0.4831325301204819, "gap": 0.03516439233647334 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 521, "mean_predicted": 0.5439873583432971, "observed": 0.5201535508637236, "gap": -0.023833807479573532 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 193, "mean_predicted": 0.6411396621163183, "observed": 0.689119170984456, "gap": 0.04797950886813762 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 19, "mean_predicted": 0.7269427749790406, "observed": 0.7368421052631579, "gap": 0.00989933028411727 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 1441, "away": 522 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 1963, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.02236875777036412, "ci95_low": 0.016398177863084562, "ci95_high": 0.028339337677643676 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.03521041592335852, "ci95_low": 0.025969211436445542, "ci95_high": 0.04445162041027151 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 964, "hit_rate": 0.49108507386653083, "profit_units": -112.53999999999998, "roi": -0.057330616403464076, "yield": -0.057330616403464076, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.05733061640346409, "ci95_low": -0.10286478367911106, "ci95_high": -0.011796449127817112 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.0031151282478250825 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 517, "hit_rate": 0.2633723892002038, "profit_units": -255.7899999999998, "roi": -0.13030565461029026, "yield": -0.13030565461029026, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.13030565461029037, "ci95_low": -0.2056433103097746, "ci95_high": -0.05496799891080614 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07992732341363412 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "dixon_coles": { "matches": 1963, "brier": 0.6293628967454856, "log_loss": 1.0453143002856649, "accuracy": 0.4651044319918492, "calibration": { "ece": 0.011346694589644652, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 84, "mean_predicted": 0.07722405410185211, "observed": 0.15476190476190477, "gap": 0.07753785066005266 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 575, "mean_predicted": 0.15984738551788186, "observed": 0.16869565217391305, "gap": 0.008848266656031195 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 2089, "mean_predicted": 0.25952071546162236, "observed": 0.26807084729535663, "gap": 0.008550131833734265 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 1698, "mean_predicted": 0.3390124862705572, "observed": 0.3392226148409894, "gap": 0.0002101285704322331 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 747, "mean_predicted": 0.44700905917778483, "observed": 0.45113788487282463, "gap": 0.004128825695039806 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 423, "mean_predicted": 0.5441986576455863, "observed": 0.5011820330969267, "gap": -0.04301662454865962 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 202, "mean_predicted": 0.6416154121638553, "observed": 0.5841584158415841, "gap": -0.05745699632227119 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 62, "mean_predicted": 0.7356128512585084, "observed": 0.6774193548387096, "gap": -0.05819349641979876 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 8, "mean_predicted": 0.8221797752681467, "observed": 0.875, "gap": 0.05282022473185333 }, { "bucket": "0.9-1.0", "count": 1, "mean_predicted": 0.9154088687686984, "observed": 1.0, "gap": 0.08459113123130158 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 1330, "away": 574, "draw": 59 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 1963, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.031006289432732526, "ci95_low": 0.023319768272293033, "ci95_high": 0.03869281059317202 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.045133077021000285, "ci95_low": 0.033948168114064245, "ci95_high": 0.056317985927936326 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 913, "hit_rate": 0.4651044319918492, "profit_units": -183.44999999999982, "roi": -0.09345389709628112, "yield": -0.09345389709628112, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.0934538970962812, "ci95_low": -0.14006553221780504, "ci95_high": -0.04684226197475736 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.013468120271810652 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 611, "hit_rate": 0.31125827814569534, "profit_units": -213.74999999999986, "roi": -0.10888945491594491, "yield": -0.10888945491594491, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.10888945491594498, "ci95_low": -0.17462890689638846, "ci95_high": -0.0431500029355015 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07981527373503493 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "form": { "matches": 1963, "brier": 0.6330221933347113, "log_loss": 1.0510695629232196, "accuracy": 0.46459500764136524, "calibration": { "ece": 0.016718326576303233, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 60, "mean_predicted": 0.1845309748680057, "observed": 0.06666666666666667, "gap": -0.11786430820133904 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 2878, "mean_predicted": 0.267086002061625, "observed": 0.25816539263377347, "gap": -0.008920609427851556 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 1643, "mean_predicted": 0.35269734642634587, "observed": 0.34266585514303105, "gap": -0.01003149128331482 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 1051, "mean_predicted": 0.44296625328294437, "observed": 0.4652711703139867, "gap": 0.022304917031042315 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 248, "mean_predicted": 0.5347184060460428, "observed": 0.6330645161290323, "gap": 0.09834611008298944 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 9, "mean_predicted": 0.6227989440311652, "observed": 0.7777777777777778, "gap": 0.1549788337466126 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 1434, "away": 529 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 1963, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.034665586021958184, "ci95_low": 0.026383747463476194, "ci95_high": 0.04294742458044017 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.0508883396585543, "ci95_low": 0.03885662762097716, "ci95_high": 0.06292005169613143 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 912, "hit_rate": 0.46459500764136524, "profit_units": -159.82999999999993, "roi": -0.08142129393785019, "yield": -0.08142129393785019, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.08142129393785023, "ci95_low": -0.12912241966428878, "ci95_high": -0.03372016821141168 }, "mean_estimated_edge": -0.024957780134262537 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 484, "hit_rate": 0.24656138563423333, "profit_units": -217.08, "roi": -0.11058583800305655, "yield": -0.11058583800305655, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.11058583800305655, "ci95_low": -0.18909285021193156, "ci95_high": -0.03207882579418152 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.09630202387367941 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "ensemble_v0": { "matches": 1963, "brier": 0.6220388711820068, "log_loss": 1.0348505166439173, "accuracy": 0.4854814060112073, "calibration": { "ece": 0.010823366853142613, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 19, "mean_predicted": 0.0844207082070039, "observed": 0.21052631578947367, "gap": 0.12610560758246978 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 457, "mean_predicted": 0.16731237650038974, "observed": 0.1487964989059081, "gap": -0.018515877594481644 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 2654, "mean_predicted": 0.2599088323554243, "observed": 0.2648831951770912, "gap": 0.004974362821666911 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 1248, "mean_predicted": 0.3426714751809906, "observed": 0.3317307692307692, "gap": -0.010940705950221397 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 810, "mean_predicted": 0.4469843327526749, "observed": 0.4666666666666667, "gap": 0.019682333913991767 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 476, "mean_predicted": 0.5411603469801244, "observed": 0.5252100840336135, "gap": -0.015950262946510918 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 189, "mean_predicted": 0.6410641423547364, "observed": 0.6349206349206349, "gap": -0.006143507434101525 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 34, "mean_predicted": 0.735299957204126, "observed": 0.7058823529411765, "gap": -0.02941760426294948 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 2, "mean_predicted": 0.8356261220132337, "observed": 1.0, "gap": 0.16437387798676628 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 1400, "away": 559, "draw": 4 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 1963, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.023682263869253303, "ci95_low": 0.01736761162881165, "ci95_high": 0.029996916109694956 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.03466929337925412, "ci95_low": 0.025584252517118083, "ci95_high": 0.04375433424139015 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 953, "hit_rate": 0.4854814060112073, "profit_units": -123.92, "roi": -0.06312786551197147, "yield": -0.06312786551197147, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.06312786551197147, "ci95_low": -0.10905828092012718, "ci95_high": -0.017197450103815765 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.0028712656482886424 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 1963, "wins": 563, "hit_rate": 0.28680590932246564, "profit_units": -251.2299999999998, "roi": -0.12798267957208345, "yield": -0.12798267957208345, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.12798267957208354, "ci95_low": -0.19794674318573363, "ci95_high": -0.05801861595843345 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07115775241851006 }, "roi_value_v0": { "bets": 1318, "wins": 346, "hit_rate": 0.26251896813353565, "profit_units": -231.38999999999984, "roi": -0.17556145675265541, "yield": -0.17556145675265541, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.17556145675265553, "ci95_low": -0.2614728836721462, "ci95_high": -0.08965002983316483 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.09155013201064453 } } }, "benchmarks": { "matches": 1963, "market_consensus": { "brier": 0.5983566073127544, "log_loss": 1.0001812232646632, "accuracy": 0.5007641365257259, "calibration": { "ece": 0.014513491392316414, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 96, "mean_predicted": 0.0794998888044313, "observed": 0.052083333333333336, "gap": -0.02741655547109797 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 695, "mean_predicted": 0.1591649930867398, "observed": 0.1510791366906475, "gap": -0.0080858563960923 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 2210, "mean_predicted": 0.2631357684869196, "observed": 0.2484162895927602, "gap": -0.014719478894159421 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 1414, "mean_predicted": 0.33631833253422583, "observed": 0.34724186704384724, "gap": 0.010923534509621413 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 642, "mean_predicted": 0.44600478992199105, "observed": 0.45638629283489096, "gap": 0.01038150291289991 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 476, "mean_predicted": 0.5484110585902285, "observed": 0.569327731092437, "gap": 0.02091667250220841 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 253, "mean_predicted": 0.6449482797118341, "observed": 0.6679841897233202, "gap": 0.023035910011486083 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 97, "mean_predicted": 0.7439200887213127, "observed": 0.7938144329896907, "gap": 0.04989434426837802 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 6, "mean_predicted": 0.8255445880122023, "observed": 0.5, "gap": -0.3255445880122023 } ] } }, "favorite_bookmaker": { "bets": 1963, "accuracy": 0.5007641365257259, "profit_units": -140.8999999999999, "roi": -0.07177789098318894, "yield": -0.07177789098318894 }, "always_home": { "bets": 1963, "accuracy": 0.4274070300560367, "profit_units": -188.07999999999967, "roi": -0.09581253183902173, "yield": -0.09581253183902173, "brier": null, "log_loss": null, "note": "Always-home este o regulă de selecție, nu o distribuție probabilistică." }, "train_frequency": { "probabilities_learned_from_train": { "home": 0.4274070300560367, "draw": 0.2766174223127866, "away": 0.2959755476311768 }, "matches": 1963, "brier": 0.6532045075361327, "log_loss": 1.0791342716167192, "accuracy": 0.4274070300560367, "calibration": { "ece": 1.0750659621786932e-14, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 3926, "mean_predicted": 0.2862964849719893, "observed": 0.2862964849719817, "gap": -7.605027718682322e-15 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 1963, "mean_predicted": 0.42740703005605374, "observed": 0.4274070300560367, "gap": -1.7041923427996153e-14 } ] } } }, "breakdowns": { "methodology": "Breakdown-ul principal folosește o singură selecție pe meci: rezultatul cu probabilitatea cea mai mare în ensemble v0. ROI-ul este fixed-stake 1u. Tabelul all-candidate edge este diagnostic și nu reprezintă o strategie.", "predicted_edge": [ { "bucket": "<0%", "selections": 927, "wins": 540, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4811298207061574, "observed_rate": 0.5825242718446602, "calibration_gap": 0.10139445113850276, "mean_estimated_edge": -0.07600384877306013, "profit_units": -33.86, "roi": -0.036526429341963325, "yield": -0.036526429341963325 }, { "bucket": ">10%", "selections": 274, "wins": 80, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4861326240073525, "observed_rate": 0.291970802919708, "calibration_gap": -0.19416182108764451, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.14993719884582768, "profit_units": -52.099999999999994, "roi": -0.19014598540145983, "yield": -0.19014598540145983 }, { "bucket": "5-10%", "selections": 338, "wins": 139, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.46875086108414293, "observed_rate": 0.41124260355029585, "calibration_gap": -0.057508257533847085, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07274796478850891, "profit_units": -18.44000000000001, "roi": -0.0545562130177515, "yield": -0.0545562130177515 }, { "bucket": "2-5%", "selections": 246, "wins": 111, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4665955029763627, "observed_rate": 0.45121951219512196, "calibration_gap": -0.015375990781240745, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.03497528580919516, "profit_units": -5.620000000000004, "roi": -0.022845528455284567, "yield": -0.022845528455284567 }, { "bucket": "0-2%", "selections": 178, "wins": 83, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.47766446655781436, "observed_rate": 0.46629213483146065, "calibration_gap": -0.011372331726353713, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.010204142634171581, "profit_units": -13.900000000000004, "roi": -0.07808988764044945, "yield": -0.07808988764044945 } ], "all_candidate_predicted_edge": [ { "bucket": "<0%", "selections": 3092, "wins": 1182, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.32684486888204894, "observed_rate": 0.38227684346701163, "calibration_gap": 0.055431974584962684, "mean_estimated_edge": -0.05064046156654452, "profit_units": 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favorizează a doua." }, "form": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.02018231420142081, "ci95_low": -0.02589560526918654, "ci95_high": -0.014469023133655081 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.028064708693501025, "ci95_low": -0.03597675369113888, "ci95_high": -0.02015266369586317 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "ensemble_v0": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.03116563635412569, "ci95_low": -0.03986303181349973, "ci95_high": -0.022468240894751645 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.0442837549728012, "ci95_low": -0.05653809109313125, "ci95_high": -0.03202941885247115 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." } } }, "validation": { "matches": 962, "actual_outcome_distribution": { "away": 305, "draw": 252, "home": 405 }, "models": { "elo": { "matches": 962, "brier": 0.6089132300229487, "log_loss": 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0.5342995789220465, "observed": 0.6124031007751938, "gap": 0.07810352185314728 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 9, "mean_predicted": 0.6190099722046493, "observed": 0.8888888888888888, "gap": 0.2698789166842396 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 700, "away": 262 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 962, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.046873275914330645, "ci95_low": 0.03461002358739243, "ci95_high": 0.05913652824126886 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.06692830999384848, "ci95_low": 0.04872809182476768, "ci95_high": 0.08512852816292929 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 962, "wins": 449, "hit_rate": 0.46673596673596673, "profit_units": -53.02000000000003, "roi": -0.05511434511434515, "yield": -0.05511434511434515, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.05511434511434512, "ci95_low": -0.12716570789470938, "ci95_high": 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{ "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 693, "mean_predicted": 0.34116310289255514, "observed": 0.3217893217893218, "gap": -0.019373781103233345 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 397, "mean_predicted": 0.44635525474248466, "observed": 0.45843828715365237, "gap": 0.012083032411167705 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 220, "mean_predicted": 0.5430058384395865, "observed": 0.6045454545454545, "gap": 0.061539616105868 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 85, "mean_predicted": 0.6380572518968257, "observed": 0.6588235294117647, "gap": 0.02076627751493898 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 12, "mean_predicted": 0.7356262132069257, "observed": 0.9166666666666666, "gap": 0.18104045345974096 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 2, "mean_predicted": 0.8100856811132278, "observed": 1.0, "gap": 0.18991431888677224 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "away": 283, "home": 669, "draw": 10 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 962, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.027046497235366736, "ci95_low": 0.01728745730952603, "ci95_high": 0.03680553716120744 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.039650871622828245, "ci95_low": 0.02512913718460042, "ci95_high": 0.05417260606105607 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 962, "wins": 466, "hit_rate": 0.48440748440748443, "profit_units": -49.99999999999999, "roi": -0.05197505197505197, "yield": -0.05197505197505197, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.05197505197505198, "ci95_low": -0.11979892459615098, "ci95_high": 0.01584882064604702 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.006516261675203124 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 962, "wins": 265, "hit_rate": 0.27546777546777546, "profit_units": -139.31999999999994, "roi": -0.14482328482328477, "yield": -0.14482328482328477, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.14482328482328483, "ci95_low": -0.24678067932629683, "ci95_high": -0.04286589032027284 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07507032662255593 }, "roi_value_v0": { "bets": 659, "wins": 177, "hit_rate": 0.26858877086494687, "profit_units": -90.85000000000004, "roi": -0.1378603945371776, "yield": -0.1378603945371776, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.13786039453717755, "ci95_low": -0.2612023824040241, "ci95_high": -0.014518406670330983 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.09597949294512427 } } }, "benchmarks": { "matches": 962, "market_consensus": { "brier": 0.584306273459077, "log_loss": 0.9818987476497808, "accuracy": 0.5124740124740125, "calibration": { "ece": 0.021821170066780464, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 73, "mean_predicted": 0.06658558232525656, "observed": 0.0136986301369863, "gap": -0.05288695218827026 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 314, "mean_predicted": 0.1576473588806379, "observed": 0.1592356687898089, "gap": 0.0015883099091709985 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 914, "mean_predicted": 0.2610800885083377, "observed": 0.23085339168490154, "gap": -0.03022669682343615 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", 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ROI-ul este fixed-stake 1u. Tabelul all-candidate edge este diagnostic și nu reprezintă o strategie.", "predicted_edge": [ { "bucket": "<0%", "selections": 411, "wins": 255, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4762749303441616, "observed_rate": 0.6204379562043796, "calibration_gap": 0.144163025860218, "mean_estimated_edge": -0.08454539974208349, "profit_units": 7.089999999999993, "roi": 0.017250608272506063, "yield": 0.017250608272506063 }, { "bucket": ">10%", "selections": 147, "wins": 50, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.463172058496194, "observed_rate": 0.3401360544217687, "calibration_gap": -0.12303600407442528, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.1511446335095258, "profit_units": 1.0799999999999983, "roi": 0.007346938775510192, "yield": 0.007346938775510192 }, { "bucket": "5-10%", "selections": 177, "wins": 64, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.46093105235546483, "observed_rate": 0.3615819209039548, "calibration_gap": -0.09934913145151003, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07325217486726367, "profit_units": -27.28000000000001, "roi": 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"mean_estimated_edge": -0.01563317261899219, "profit_units": -1.6600000000000008, "roi": -0.032549019607843156, "yield": -0.032549019607843156 } ], "requested_niche_3_6_edge_odds_1_60_2_20_strong_agreement": [ { "bucket": "niche", "selections": 8, "wins": 1, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.5242141315314096, "observed_rate": 0.125, "calibration_gap": -0.3992141315314096, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.04051126569986188, "profit_units": -5.95, "roi": -0.74375, "yield": -0.74375 } ] }, "signal_vs_train_frequency": { "elo": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.04540829233067792, "ci95_low": -0.05771679123095669, "ci95_high": -0.03309979343039915 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.06154324415130471, "ci95_low": -0.07852415446965923, "ci95_high": -0.04456233383295019 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "dixon_coles": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.033147661408977264, "ci95_low": -0.04710864912888932, "ci95_high": -0.01918667368906521 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.04347300102833459, "ci95_low": -0.06435057760303858, "ci95_high": -0.02259542445363059 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "form": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.02314197298021948, "ci95_low": -0.03156769058430133, "ci95_high": -0.014716255376137627 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.03167046762825492, "ci95_low": -0.04337645922456932, "ci95_high": -0.01996447603194052 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "ensemble_v0": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.04296875165918339, "ci95_low": -0.055248535147460094, "ci95_high": -0.03068896817090668 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.05894790599927516, "ci95_low": -0.0762784456838721, "ci95_high": -0.041617366314678224 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." } } }, "test": { "matches": 957, "actual_outcome_distribution": { "draw": 285, "away": 265, "home": 407 }, "models": { "elo": { "matches": 957, "brier": 0.6322966688316423, "log_loss": 1.0522277132390776, "accuracy": 0.44932079414838033, "calibration": { "ece": 0.0284582285718856, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 1, "mean_predicted": 0.09465938539181129, "observed": 0.0, "gap": -0.09465938539181129 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 190, "mean_predicted": 0.18266293202888187, "observed": 0.18947368421052632, "gap": 0.006810752181644453 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 1253, "mean_predicted": 0.24926097968583621, "observed": 0.27294493216280924, "gap": 0.023683952476973025 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 673, "mean_predicted": 0.3459565201414496, "observed": 0.3209509658246657, "gap": -0.025005554316783918 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 427, "mean_predicted": 0.4461150278733341, "observed": 0.3957845433255269, "gap": -0.0503304845478072 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 239, "mean_predicted": 0.5457934840261531, "observed": 0.5857740585774058, "gap": 0.0399805745512527 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 83, "mean_predicted": 0.6317743707522935, "observed": 0.6024096385542169, "gap": -0.02936473219807656 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 5, "mean_predicted": 0.7347211141933818, "observed": 0.8, "gap": 0.06527888580661823 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 727, "away": 230 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 949, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.01621160484694021, "ci95_low": 0.007981176298003217, "ci95_high": 0.0244420333958772 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.026430313086274495, "ci95_low": 0.013919346905835682, "ci95_high": 0.038941279266713306 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 949, "wins": 428, "hit_rate": 0.45100105374077976, "profit_units": -113.04, "roi": -0.11911485774499474, "yield": -0.11911485774499474, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.11911485774499472, "ci95_low": -0.18422566878876928, "ci95_high": -0.05400404670122018 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.010788586095045759 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 949, "wins": 265, "hit_rate": 0.2792413066385669, "profit_units": -109.85199999999996, "roi": -0.11575553213909374, "yield": -0.11575553213909374, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.11575553213909379, "ci95_low": -0.21592030823353692, "ci95_high": -0.015590756044650655 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07484659329890163 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "dixon_coles": { "matches": 957, "brier": 0.6465256545677586, "log_loss": 1.0705850513665554, "accuracy": 0.4378265412748171, "calibration": { "ece": 0.026590404621559992, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 16, "mean_predicted": 0.08406200288737985, "observed": 0.125, "gap": 0.04093799711262015 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 212, "mean_predicted": 0.16399292872936405, "observed": 0.20754716981132076, "gap": 0.04355424108195671 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 1100, "mean_predicted": 0.26065271020811587, "observed": 0.2863636363636364, "gap": 0.025710926155520508 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 856, "mean_predicted": 0.3404568550092799, "observed": 0.32242990654205606, "gap": -0.018026948467223858 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 416, "mean_predicted": 0.44548371381524887, "observed": 0.43028846153846156, "gap": -0.015195252276787308 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 179, "mean_predicted": 0.5396757786547468, "observed": 0.4860335195530726, "gap": -0.053642259101674195 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 69, "mean_predicted": 0.6336731580543887, "observed": 0.5652173913043478, "gap": -0.06845576675004095 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 21, "mean_predicted": 0.7350995328259247, "observed": 0.6666666666666666, "gap": -0.06843286615925803 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 2, "mean_predicted": 0.8278652624326878, "observed": 0.5, "gap": -0.32786526243268777 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 685, "away": 252, "draw": 20 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 949, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.030402111132781833, "ci95_low": 0.020071165896524294, "ci95_high": 0.04073305636903937 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.04499116107620257, "ci95_low": 0.030086894366664438, "ci95_high": 0.059895427785740696 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 949, "wins": 417, "hit_rate": 0.43940990516332984, "profit_units": -116.99999999999999, "roi": -0.12328767123287669, "yield": -0.12328767123287669, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.1232876712328767, "ci95_low": -0.19065561026078445, "ci95_high": -0.05591973220496896 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.009398395178043778 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 949, "wins": 276, "hit_rate": 0.29083245521601686, "profit_units": -99.28199999999981, "roi": -0.10461749209694396, "yield": -0.10461749209694396, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.10461749209694415, "ci95_low": -0.20373414042274368, "ci95_high": -0.005500843771144612 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07595179470685838 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "form": { "matches": 957, "brier": 0.6412891581809858, "log_loss": 1.0629900436987934, "accuracy": 0.4336468129571578, "calibration": { "ece": 0.011909328158817078, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 31, "mean_predicted": 0.18289751648968652, "observed": 0.06451612903225806, "gap": -0.11838138745742846 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 1398, "mean_predicted": 0.26916347813295227, "observed": 0.2696709585121602, "gap": 0.0005074803792079474 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 821, "mean_predicted": 0.35374667181583686, "observed": 0.3373934226552984, "gap": -0.01635324916053843 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 515, "mean_predicted": 0.4416484999109719, "observed": 0.4601941747572815, "gap": 0.018545674846309645 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 98, "mean_predicted": 0.5324316860669195, "observed": 0.6020408163265306, "gap": 0.06960913025961113 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 8, "mean_predicted": 0.6232917886803215, "observed": 0.625, "gap": 0.0017082113196784654 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 724, "away": 233 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 949, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.025602800778231485, "ci95_low": 0.013813346297492512, "ci95_high": 0.037392255258970455 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.03773983917368489, "ci95_low": 0.020862166946652255, "ci95_high": 0.05461751140071752 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 949, "wins": 412, "hit_rate": 0.43414120126448896, "profit_units": -94.42999999999999, "roi": -0.09950474183350895, "yield": -0.09950474183350895, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.09950474183350895, "ci95_low": -0.17078558037413855, "ci95_high": -0.028223903292879354 }, "mean_estimated_edge": -0.006427328362687108 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 949, "wins": 238, "hit_rate": 0.2507903055848261, "profit_units": -125.18200000000006, "roi": -0.13190937829294, "yield": -0.13190937829294, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.13190937829293994, "ci95_low": -0.23588827625586, "ci95_high": -0.02793048033001988 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.0938846670438596 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "ensemble_v0": { "matches": 957, "brier": 0.6374768596110594, "log_loss": 1.0576702106689626, "accuracy": 0.4482758620689655, "calibration": { "ece": 0.020602891620381043, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 1, "mean_predicted": 0.0652077600280922, "observed": 0.0, "gap": -0.0652077600280922 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 157, "mean_predicted": 0.16893749548267967, "observed": 0.17197452229299362, "gap": 0.003037026810313953 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 1310, "mean_predicted": 0.2596810674857003, "observed": 0.2816793893129771, "gap": 0.02199832182727679 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 679, "mean_predicted": 0.3429163619791341, "observed": 0.3166421207658321, "gap": -0.02627424121330202 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 444, "mean_predicted": 0.4446001253025854, "observed": 0.42567567567567566, "gap": -0.018924449626909756 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 203, "mean_predicted": 0.541406859473883, "observed": 0.541871921182266, "gap": 0.00046506170838300775 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 65, "mean_predicted": 0.6353469690777844, "observed": 0.6, "gap": -0.03534696907778445 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 11, "mean_predicted": 0.724547704799386, "observed": 0.6363636363636364, "gap": -0.08818406843574966 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 1, "mean_predicted": 0.8135714086969902, "observed": 1.0, "gap": 0.18642859130300982 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 717, "away": 239, "draw": 1 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 949, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.02136785296570227, "ci95_low": 0.012818866922716644, "ci95_high": 0.029916839008687898 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.0319570527890808, "ci95_low": 0.019701604876349765, "ci95_high": 0.04421250070181183 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 949, "wins": 427, "hit_rate": 0.4499473129610116, "profit_units": -109.82000000000004, "roi": -0.11572181243414124, "yield": -0.11572181243414124, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.1157218124341412, "ci95_low": -0.18147448385968282, "ci95_high": -0.04996914100859959 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.004459153419403875 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 949, "wins": 254, "hit_rate": 0.26765015806111697, "profit_units": -158.09199999999998, "roi": -0.16658798735511063, "yield": -0.16658798735511063, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.16658798735511063, "ci95_low": -0.264014709402127, "ci95_high": -0.06916126530809422 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.06897767064684325 }, "roi_value_v0": { "bets": 637, "wins": 160, "hit_rate": 0.25117739403453687, "profit_units": -127.44200000000002, "roi": -0.2000659340659341, "yield": -0.2000659340659341, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.20006593406593406, "ci95_low": -0.3196452964781495, "ci95_high": -0.08048657165371866 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.087654569306066 } } }, "benchmarks": { "matches": 949, "market_consensus": { "brier": 0.6155054801411513, "log_loss": 1.0249128660427187, "accuracy": 0.48472075869336145, "calibration": { "ece": 0.011662338602822354, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 19, "mean_predicted": 0.08003409615078004, "observed": 0.05263157894736842, "gap": -0.027402517203411622 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 281, "mean_predicted": 0.16151753379746206, "observed": 0.15302491103202848, "gap": -0.008492622765433583 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 1099, "mean_predicted": 0.2611900140634712, "observed": 0.2575068243858053, "gap": -0.003683189677665899 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 727, "mean_predicted": 0.33521563585589426, "observed": 0.3328748280605227, "gap": -0.0023408077953715467 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 388, "mean_predicted": 0.44669839511770615, "observed": 0.48711340206185566, "gap": 0.04041500694414951 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 199, "mean_predicted": 0.545443333498533, "observed": 0.5125628140703518, "gap": -0.032880519428181265 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 108, "mean_predicted": 0.6485141548946343, "observed": 0.6481481481481481, "gap": -0.00036600674648612497 }, { "bucket": "0.7-0.8", "count": 22, "mean_predicted": 0.7308947133278306, "observed": 0.7727272727272727, "gap": 0.04183255939944208 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 4, "mean_predicted": 0.8404798398368342, "observed": 0.5, "gap": -0.34047983983683416 } ] } }, "favorite_bookmaker": { "bets": 949, "accuracy": 0.48472075869336145, "profit_units": -67.65, "roi": -0.07128556375131719, "yield": -0.07128556375131719 }, "always_home": { "bets": 949, "accuracy": 0.42571127502634354, "profit_units": -78.62, "roi": -0.08284510010537409, "yield": -0.08284510010537409, "brier": null, "log_loss": null, "note": "Always-home este o regulă de selecție, nu o distribuție probabilistică." }, "train_frequency": { "probabilities_learned_from_train": { "home": 0.4274070300560367, "draw": 0.2766174223127866, "away": 0.2959755476311768 }, "matches": 957, "brier": 0.6545820197068916, "log_loss": 1.0813463684884976, "accuracy": 0.42528735632183906, "calibration": { "ece": 0.001413115822794427, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 1914, "mean_predicted": 0.28629648497198534, "observed": 0.28735632183908044, "gap": 0.0010598368670950986 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 957, "mean_predicted": 0.42740703005603214, "observed": 0.42528735632183906, "gap": -0.002119673734193084 } ] } } }, "breakdowns": { "methodology": "Breakdown-ul principal folosește o singură selecție pe meci: rezultatul cu probabilitatea cea mai mare în ensemble v0. ROI-ul este fixed-stake 1u. Tabelul all-candidate edge este diagnostic și nu reprezintă o strategie.", "predicted_edge": [ { "bucket": "5-10%", "selections": 156, "wins": 65, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4523663468210279, "observed_rate": 0.4166666666666667, "calibration_gap": -0.0356996801543612, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07134475082391317, "profit_units": -1.4399999999999986, "roi": -0.009230769230769221, "yield": -0.009230769230769221 }, { "bucket": ">10%", "selections": 131, "wins": 27, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.46563115617201034, "observed_rate": 0.20610687022900764, "calibration_gap": -0.2595242859430027, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.14247471426913547, "profit_units": -57.48, "roi": -0.4387786259541985, "yield": -0.4387786259541985 }, { "bucket": "<0%", "selections": 453, "wins": 248, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.46986035106608504, "observed_rate": 0.5474613686534217, "calibration_gap": 0.07760101758733662, "mean_estimated_edge": -0.06780706538071765, "profit_units": -23.86999999999999, "roi": 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-8.579999999999998, "roi": -0.16188679245283016, "yield": -0.16188679245283016 } ], "requested_niche_3_6_edge_odds_1_60_2_20_strong_agreement": [ { "bucket": "niche", "selections": 25, "wins": 14, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.5134615358138076, "observed_rate": 0.56, "calibration_gap": 0.04653846418619245, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.04441940579729042, "profit_units": 2.2699999999999996, "roi": 0.09079999999999998, "yield": 0.09079999999999998 } ] }, "signal_vs_train_frequency": { "elo": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.022285350875248886, "ci95_low": -0.033231858437201875, "ci95_high": -0.011338843313295899 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.029118655249420318, "ci95_low": -0.0441943905153492, "ci95_high": -0.014042919983491433 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "dixon_coles": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.008056365139132647, "ci95_low": -0.019889672736303723, "ci95_high": 0.0037769424580384285 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.010761317121943883, "ci95_low": -0.028191315565751753, "ci95_high": 0.006668681321863984 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "form": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.013292861525906686, "ci95_low": -0.02090914100544912, "ci95_high": -0.005676582046364254 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.018356324789704195, "ci95_low": -0.028909471843346347, "ci95_high": -0.007803177736062043 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "ensemble_v0": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.017105160095832194, "ci95_low": -0.027821491863044785, "ci95_high": -0.006388828328619601 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.023676157819533947, "ci95_low": -0.03865832662244718, "ci95_high": -0.008693989016620718 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." } } }, "forward_partial": { "matches": 47, "actual_outcome_distribution": { "draw": 14, "home": 28, "away": 5 }, "models": { "elo": { "matches": 47, "brier": 0.5970802305543343, "log_loss": 1.0053645083164189, "accuracy": 0.5106382978723404, "calibration": { "ece": 0.062246396356476136, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 6, "mean_predicted": 0.1903089755307571, "observed": 0.0, "gap": -0.1903089755307571 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 61, "mean_predicted": 0.24949691616546332, "observed": 0.26229508196721313, "gap": 0.012798165801749806 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 41, "mean_predicted": 0.3484603801636803, "observed": 0.3170731707317073, "gap": -0.031387209431972984 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 20, "mean_predicted": 0.44798207516180655, "observed": 0.35, "gap": -0.09798207516180657 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 10, "mean_predicted": 0.5534171023959713, "observed": 0.8, "gap": 0.24658289760402874 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 3, "mean_predicted": 0.6193820489384858, "observed": 1.0, "gap": 0.3806179510615142 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 39, "away": 8 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 47, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.021233449845350187, "ci95_low": -0.018475523429815156, "ci95_high": 0.06094242312051553 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.03129845213257141, "ci95_low": -0.02730510388433352, "ci95_high": 0.08990200814947634 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 47, "wins": 24, "hit_rate": 0.5106382978723404, "profit_units": 0.8399999999999994, "roi": 0.017872340425531902, "yield": 0.017872340425531902, "roi_ci95": { "mean": 0.017872340425531912, "ci95_low": -0.3020056598485447, "ci95_high": 0.3377503406996086 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.015988469230821818 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 47, "wins": 12, "hit_rate": 0.2553191489361702, "profit_units": -11.879999999999999, "roi": -0.25276595744680846, "yield": -0.25276595744680846, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.2527659574468085, "ci95_low": -0.6640445192535417, "ci95_high": 0.15851260435992465 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.0813136460364531 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "dixon_coles": { "matches": 47, "brier": 0.5734175910045307, "log_loss": 0.9703494093186411, "accuracy": 0.5106382978723404, "calibration": { "ece": 0.06384162558546012, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.0-0.1", "count": 2, "mean_predicted": 0.07085538018634183, "observed": 0.5, "gap": 0.42914461981365815 }, { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 14, "mean_predicted": 0.14304217908402683, "observed": 0.0, "gap": -0.14304217908402683 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 59, "mean_predicted": 0.25701128330103995, "observed": 0.2542372881355932, "gap": -0.002773995165446741 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 26, "mean_predicted": 0.3349628542294051, "observed": 0.38461538461538464, "gap": 0.049652530385979554 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 21, "mean_predicted": 0.44418104261160735, "observed": 0.3333333333333333, "gap": -0.11084770927827403 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 9, "mean_predicted": 0.556308498554828, "observed": 0.5555555555555556, "gap": -0.0007529429992724213 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 9, "mean_predicted": 0.6462377831731128, "observed": 0.8888888888888888, "gap": 0.24265110571577608 }, { "bucket": "0.8-0.9", "count": 1, "mean_predicted": 0.8322803773298317, "observed": 1.0, "gap": 0.16771962267016827 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 40, "away": 6, "draw": 1 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 47, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": -0.002429189704453479, "ci95_low": -0.04803234610703906, "ci95_high": 0.0431739666981321 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": -0.0037166468652066937, "ci95_low": -0.07043028818690683, "ci95_high": 0.06299699445649345 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 47, "wins": 24, "hit_rate": 0.5106382978723404, "profit_units": 0.6799999999999993, "roi": 0.014468085106382964, "yield": 0.014468085106382964, "roi_ci95": { "mean": 0.014468085106382972, "ci95_low": -0.29647107304460263, "ci95_high": 0.3254072432573686 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.06572143601055885 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 47, "wins": 20, "hit_rate": 0.425531914893617, "profit_units": 0.3499999999999992, "roi": 0.007446808510638281, "yield": 0.007446808510638281, "roi_ci95": { "mean": 0.007446808510638295, "ci95_low": -0.3638940870821605, "ci95_high": 0.37878770410343704 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.0913007153874523 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "form": { "matches": 47, "brier": 0.6464476919281432, "log_loss": 1.0694775885776984, "accuracy": 0.425531914893617, "calibration": { "ece": 0.01441404295330959, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 65, "mean_predicted": 0.27153560536322624, "observed": 0.26153846153846155, "gap": -0.009997143824764687 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 49, "mean_predicted": 0.3523471842262581, "observed": 0.3469387755102041, "gap": -0.005408408716054025 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 25, "mean_predicted": 0.43935239887166716, "observed": 0.48, "gap": 0.04064760112833282 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 2, "mean_predicted": 0.5506818262559898, "observed": 0.5, "gap": -0.050681826255989826 } ] }, "predicted_class_distribution": { "home": 38, "away": 9 }, "paired_vs_closing_market": { "matches": 47, "brier_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.07060091121915922, "ci95_low": 0.019823242768089257, "ci95_high": 0.12137857967022919 }, "log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.09541153239385064, "ci95_low": 0.02289242356116508, "ci95_high": 0.1679306412265362 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 47, "wins": 20, "hit_rate": 0.425531914893617, "profit_units": -8.0, "roi": -0.1702127659574468, "yield": -0.1702127659574468, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.1702127659574468, "ci95_low": -0.47461240369895497, "ci95_high": 0.13418687178406133 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.0006603865691609191 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 47, "wins": 9, "hit_rate": 0.19148936170212766, "profit_units": -16.56, "roi": -0.35234042553191486, "yield": -0.35234042553191486, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.3523404255319149, "ci95_low": -0.7638295557963507, "ci95_high": 0.059148704732520874 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.09501950185813304 }, "roi_value_v0": null }, "ensemble_v0": { "matches": 47, "brier": 0.5791996606740308, "log_loss": 0.9790565168054738, "accuracy": 0.48936170212765956, "calibration": { "ece": 0.06041232244426262, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 12, "mean_predicted": 0.16553151071219183, "observed": 0.08333333333333333, "gap": -0.0821981773788585 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 63, 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"log_loss_difference_model_minus_market": { "mean": 0.004990460621626205, "ci95_low": -0.04991412756894283, "ci95_high": 0.05989504881219524 }, "interpretation": "Negativ înseamnă că modelul bate closing market; pozitiv înseamnă că piața este mai bună." }, "roi_predicted_class": { "bets": 47, "wins": 23, "hit_rate": 0.48936170212765956, "profit_units": -2.3199999999999985, "roi": -0.04936170212765954, "yield": -0.04936170212765954, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.04936170212765958, "ci95_low": -0.3512996687192997, "ci95_high": 0.25257626446398057 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.043239607828302544 }, "roi_max_edge": { "bets": 47, "wins": 14, "hit_rate": 0.2978723404255319, "profit_units": -13.81, "roi": -0.29382978723404257, "yield": -0.29382978723404257, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.29382978723404257, "ci95_low": -0.6304072616098669, "ci95_high": 0.04274768714178179 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07730024447560398 }, "roi_value_v0": { "bets": 31, "wins": 11, "hit_rate": 0.3548387096774194, "profit_units": -4.0699999999999985, "roi": -0.1312903225806451, "yield": -0.1312903225806451, "roi_ci95": { "mean": -0.13129032258064516, "ci95_low": -0.5865869305753393, "ci95_high": 0.32400628541404897 }, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.09680654681075238 } } }, "benchmarks": { "matches": 47, "market_consensus": { "brier": 0.5758467807089842, "log_loss": 0.9740660561838473, "accuracy": 0.5106382978723404, "calibration": { "ece": 0.0531568679160351, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.1-0.2", "count": 11, "mean_predicted": 0.16507320700452907, "observed": 0.09090909090909091, "gap": -0.07416411609543816 }, { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 62, "mean_predicted": 0.2639466523016983, "observed": 0.22580645161290322, "gap": -0.03814020068879506 }, { "bucket": "0.3-0.4", "count": 34, "mean_predicted": 0.3402076902448636, "observed": 0.3235294117647059, "gap": -0.016678278480157682 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 18, "mean_predicted": 0.4465209834033146, "observed": 0.5, "gap": 0.053479016596685414 }, { "bucket": "0.5-0.6", "count": 10, "mean_predicted": 0.5402764168969248, "observed": 0.7, "gap": 0.1597235831030751 }, { "bucket": "0.6-0.7", "count": 6, "mean_predicted": 0.635383156948436, "observed": 0.8333333333333334, "gap": 0.19795017638489742 } ] } }, "favorite_bookmaker": { "bets": 47, "accuracy": 0.5106382978723404, "profit_units": -2.690000000000001, "roi": -0.057234042553191505, "yield": -0.057234042553191505 }, "always_home": { "bets": 47, "accuracy": 0.5957446808510638, "profit_units": 12.240000000000002, "roi": 0.26042553191489365, "yield": 0.26042553191489365, "brier": null, "log_loss": null, "note": "Always-home este o regulă de selecție, nu o distribuție probabilistică." }, "train_frequency": { "probabilities_learned_from_train": { "home": 0.4274070300560367, "draw": 0.2766174223127866, "away": 0.2959755476311768 }, "matches": 47, "brier": 0.6097776842892324, "log_loss": 1.0187146401399414, "accuracy": 0.5957446808510638, "calibration": { "ece": 0.11222510053001791, "rows": [ { "bucket": "0.2-0.3", "count": 94, "mean_predicted": 0.28629648497198146, "observed": 0.20212765957446807, "gap": -0.08416882539751339 }, { "bucket": "0.4-0.5", "count": 47, "mean_predicted": 0.4274070300560368, "observed": 0.5957446808510638, "gap": 0.168337650795027 } ] } } }, "breakdowns": { "methodology": "Breakdown-ul principal folosește o singură selecție pe meci: rezultatul cu probabilitatea cea mai mare în ensemble v0. ROI-ul este fixed-stake 1u. Tabelul all-candidate edge este diagnostic și nu reprezintă o strategie.", "predicted_edge": [ { "bucket": "5-10%", "selections": 14, "wins": 7, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4829489389290904, "observed_rate": 0.5, "calibration_gap": 0.01705106107090959, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.07402121930826348, "profit_units": 0.6699999999999999, "roi": 0.047857142857142855, "yield": 0.047857142857142855 }, { "bucket": "<0%", "selections": 16, "wins": 11, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.48049145852806396, "observed_rate": 0.6875, "calibration_gap": 0.20700854147193604, "mean_estimated_edge": -0.05074741205278446, "profit_units": 2.5600000000000005, "roi": 0.16000000000000003, "yield": 0.16000000000000003 }, { "bucket": ">10%", "selections": 10, "wins": 4, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.49242235407460355, "observed_rate": 0.4, "calibration_gap": -0.09242235407460353, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.1577163147350618, "profit_units": -0.20000000000000062, "roi": -0.020000000000000063, "yield": 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-0.44999999999999973, "roi": -0.01285714285714285, "yield": -0.01285714285714285 }, { "bucket": "8-15", "selections": 3, "wins": 0, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4142536694891865, "observed_rate": 0.0, "calibration_gap": -0.4142536694891865, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.03684051051852418, "profit_units": -3.0, "roi": -1.0, "yield": -1.0 }, { "bucket": "<8", "selections": 6, "wins": 3, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.4636017406323334, "observed_rate": 0.5, "calibration_gap": 0.03639825936766661, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.05914961016298118, "profit_units": 0.8399999999999999, "roi": 0.13999999999999999, "yield": 0.13999999999999999 }, { "bucket": "16-24", "selections": 3, "wins": 2, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.5084238761560766, "observed_rate": 0.6666666666666666, "calibration_gap": 0.15824279051058998, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.017941730966017977, "profit_units": 0.29000000000000004, "roi": 0.09666666666666668, "yield": 0.09666666666666668 } ], "requested_niche_3_6_edge_odds_1_60_2_20_strong_agreement": [ { "bucket": "niche", "selections": 1, "wins": 1, "mean_predicted_probability": 0.5602667821393943, "observed_rate": 1.0, "calibration_gap": 0.4397332178606057, "mean_estimated_edge": 0.05350075395969578, "profit_units": 0.79, "roi": 0.79, "yield": 0.79 } ] }, "signal_vs_train_frequency": { "elo": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.012697453734898, "ci95_low": -0.054551869582046254, "ci95_high": 0.029156962112250252 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.013350131823522288, "ci95_low": -0.07057122130569632, "ci95_high": 0.043870957658651746 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "dixon_coles": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.03636009328470167, "ci95_low": -0.09434808922433274, "ci95_high": 0.021627902654929407 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.04836523082130039, "ci95_low": -0.1374151587888825, "ci95_high": 0.04068469714628172 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "form": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": 0.03667000763891104, "ci95_low": 0.0050135346894568805, "ci95_high": 0.0683264805883652 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": 0.05076294843775695, "ci95_low": 0.007648044962934933, "ci95_high": 0.09387785191257897 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." }, "ensemble_v0": { "brier_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.03057802361520148, "ci95_low": -0.079330007497024, "ci95_high": 0.018173960266621037 }, "log_loss_difference_first_minus_second": { "mean": -0.03965812333446749, "ci95_low": -0.1084970802701864, "ci95_high": 0.029180833601251406 }, "interpretation": "Negativ favorizează prima sursă; pozitiv favorizează a doua." } } } } }